diff --git a/docs/frontier-s39.md b/docs/frontier-s39.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..fa41a8f150 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/frontier-s39.md @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +# Frontier snapshot — P30 S39 close (2026-08-05, ~01:00) + +Derived fresh from `corpus.stubs` + the sigs (regenerate any time: +`.run/s39/frontier_snapshot.txt` is the raw output). **Reconciled** against every other "what's +left" view by `make audit-frontier` — see that gate's output for disagreements. + +## The whole open frontier + +**13,312 open stubs / 741,792 instructions across 140 binaries.** + +### The single biggest target is now `main` + +| binary | open ins | open stubs | +|---|---:|---:| +| **main** | **79,074** | **2,001** | +| ov_SC02_005 | 18,266 | 381 | +| ov_SC04_011 | 15,366 | 285 | +| ov_SC06_033 | 13,302 | 147 | +| ov_SC06_032 | 13,149 | 169 | +| ov_SC03_028 | 13,031 | 203 | +| ov_SC02_011 | 13,017 | 260 | +| ov_SC06_029 | 12,942 | 178 | +| ov_SC06_018 | 12,504 | 169 | +| ov_SC06_024 | 12,243 | 170 | + +**`main` is 10.7% of all open instructions** — and it only became *visible* at this size tonight: +its Ghidra sig was 7 weeks stale and covered 1,525 of 2,002 stubs, so 477 of them (19,309 ins) were +invisible to every metric and every target selector. That is the R36/R34 lesson repeating: work a +consumer cannot see does not exist to planning. + +`main` is also the least tractable per instruction — it is structurally barren (zero `h_exact` +overlap with the overlays; "main is not free dedup" was checked two ways in S31/32 and both were +negative), so it is the genuine ~490-tok/ins agent tail, not a mechanical harvest. + +### Overlay open stubs by size (main excluded) + +| band | stubs | ins | +|---|---:|---:| +| ≤20 | 2,003 | 31,413 | +| 21–50 | 5,243 | 173,862 | +| 51–150 | **3,246** | **264,784** | +| 151–400 | 765 | 155,807 | +| >400 | 54 | 36,852 | + +The mass is the **51–150 band (264,784 ins)** — too big for the free local ≤15 tier, well inside +what the §17–§45 toolkit handles. The >400 tail is only 54 stubs / 36,852 ins. + +## What is measured, and what is still assumed + +- **Measured tonight:** the free `h_exact` pool (§142) is now 66 instances / 1,061 ins, all + macro-backed — the cheap mechanical vein is essentially spent at this address-identical tier. +- **Measured tonight:** stored-draft re-gate rates by population — 4/6 fresh, 1/12 general stored, + 3/17 reverted-overlay, 8/35 draft-exemplar heads (`docs/calibration.md`). +- **Still assumed:** the frontier report's h_norm cluster pool (1,689 clusters / 326,261 ins at a + claimed 2.7× multiplier). **Its whale claim was 3/4 wrong** (§142), so this number must be + re-measured before a wave is scoped onto it — that is S5's first step, not its premise. +- **Still open (denominator):** the 39 un-onboarded type-1 modules and main's missing independent + boundary oracle. Neither is in the 741,792 above, because nothing can see them yet.