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BFM-decomp/phase-ends
Drew T 605a4b77c8 docs(phase-31): record the 8k-vs-16k question as UNRESOLVED, with the A/B that settles it
Drew asked whether waves cracked better before MAXTOK went 8000 -> 16000. Recording both halves
of the answer so next session does not relitigate it from memory:

CLEAN: raising to 16k did cause a real regression — draft completion 84-89% (8k) -> 41% on wave
bt, 69% on bu — but the cause was a harness interaction, not the model. A 16k generation runs
~530 s at ~30 tok/s while STRAGGLER_GRACE was 120 s, so agents were cut off mid-thought with no
draft. Grace at 700 s fixed it; completion has run 97-99% since.

CONFOUNDED: on banks per draft the 8k era looks better (S59: 1,335 of 2,996 = 44.6%; today's best
16k waves dd 34.7%, de 29.7%) — but the populations differ completely. 8k waves had never-drafted
work; today's draw from skeletons that refused six times. Budget and exhaustion moved together, so
neither figure isolates the other. Neither should be cited as evidence about the budget.

AGAINST the simple story: truncated-turn rate is INVERSELY correlated with bank rate (cx 8.7%
trunc/43.9% bank, dd 8.3%/51.4% vs dl 1.3%/0.5%, ej 0.6%/0%). Budget exhaustion driving the
decline would produce the opposite relationship.

THE A/B: split ONE wave's card pool — half the shards at 8k, half at 16k, same generation mix,
same binaries, same gate, same tree, grace 700 s in both arms. Compare banks per DRAFT and per
GATE MINUTE. Holding the population constant is the whole point; every historical comparison
fails exactly there. If 8k matches 16k, the cheaper budget also buys more agents per unit time.
2026-08-25 23:01:53 -06:00
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2026-06-10 22:02:07 -06:00

phase-ends/ — the living record

  • PhaseEnd_Phase[N].md — written at each phase boundary (format defined in PROJECT_CONTEXT.md). Append-only history: build log, deviations, commit message, rules added, changelog. Never deleted.
  • CURRENT_PHASE.md — the in-phase autonomous log: approved phase plan, per-task checkboxes, current task pointer, blockers. Created at phase start, updated after every task, absorbed into the PhaseEnd file and deleted at phase close. This is the crash/compaction recovery point.
  • Sessions read PROJECT_CONTEXT.md, then every PhaseEnd_*.md in numeric order, then CURRENT_PHASE.md (if present) — in that order, every session.