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Drew T a4640e3a51 feat(phase-28 T1): B2 LIVES — 8/8 banked; the "families don't template" doctrine was a missing carve

The roadmap's decisive P28/P29 input (h_seq families bank at ~0%) is byte-refuted. Same
family, same era, through the carve path its own exemplar required: 8 of 8 BANKED.

- THE PROBE: jtbl_family_bank.py func_8017BEBC ov_SC01_000 0x8017bebc --raw
  .run/phase26-cracks/func_8017BEBC.c over 8 of 115 members (4 same-address + 4
  CROSS-address, exercising to_addr) -> {'BANKED': 8}.
  R22: make clean && extract-all && check-all -> 140 passed, 0 failed of 140.

- ROOT CAUSE of the P27 0/8, byte-verified: 0x8017BEBC is a jr/switch core. §47 banked its
  exemplar as "lazy isolation -> carve (9-piece interleave) -> splice -> BYTE-IDENTICAL" and
  called the fix "×N template-safe". family_sweep.hseq_sweep stages C and gates -- it has NO
  CARVE STEP -- so gcc's generated jump table is never placed at the sibling's address. The
  entire residual is TWO WORDS: classify_member -> PURE, ndiff=2 @ idx 343/345 =
  lui/lw %hi/%lo(jtbl_801EC44C). overlays.mk:112 carves ov_SC01_000_jr_8017BEBC.o for the
  exemplar; :134 has no such entry for the member. tools/jtbl_family_bank.py exists to do
  exactly this per sibling and had NEVER been run on this family.

- THREE COMPOUNDING FAILURES made the doctrine: (1) wrong tool for the class; (2) n=1 on the
  LEAST representative family -- has_mid_jr is 3 of 163 matched-exemplar families (120 of
  13,232 members) -- generalized to the whole frontier; (3) its corroborating Phase-26 probes
  (tiny-IMM 0/241, PURE 0/134, pinned 0/133) ALL predate _carry_macros (P27 T5, commit:0637).
  P27's decision-log calls its own re-probe "a FOURTH phantom exhaustion proof" -- naming the
  mechanism that would have faked the first three, and never re-running them. The ~0% doctrine
  has NO surviving post-fix evidence.

- SCOPE HONESTY (P9): this refutes the EVIDENCE for ~0%; it does NOT establish a general rate.
  n=1, and jr is the rarest class by construction. T3 measures the rate over the population
  that actually exists: 1418 matched-exemplar families / 21,889 members (PURE 78% / IMM 20% /
  STRUCT 1.8% -- note the roadmap sizes its swing number on STRUCT = 1.8% of the input).

- TWO SELF-CORRECTIONS (R14), both mine: (a) the approved plan's "add jtbl_ to symbol_map" was
  a WRONG FIX FROM A TRUE DIAGNOSIS -- a compiler-generated switch table is never named in C,
  so there is no token to substitute; the fix is PLACEMENT. No symbol_map change was made and
  T1 became a run, not a code change. (b) func_8017BEBC.md's header still says "close=2 of 952"
  (pre-§47-slider); the .c was updated, the .md was not -- templating from the header's premise
  would have produced zeros indistinguishable from a wall.

- DISTILLED IN-SESSION (R30/R16): cookbook §53 (sweep a family with the tool its exemplar
  needed: the carve law, the --raw rule, the symbol_map-jtbl trap, and the "before a 0%
  retires a lever" three-question test); calibration.md's decisive table REWRITTEN (the ~0%
  row marked an artifact, not a rate; the addressable pool tabulated); decision-log R31.

- Carried: the family's remaining 107 members (~101,864 ins, ~0 agent tokens) -> T1b.

2026-07-15 21:56:28 -06:00

8.0 KiB

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Endgame calibration — measured rates for P28/P29 sizing (Phase-27 T9)

The roadmap (§6 risk register) makes the member-adapt close-rate THE swing number and holds P28/P29 yield projections until it's measured. This records what Phase-27 could measure directly and names honestly the one number that needs P28's member_adapt tool to pin down. All rates are byte-gate-grounded (G3/P9) — a "match" here means the whole-binary gate accepted it.

Velocity (the flip-timing checkpoint input)

	value	note
instr-weighted, Phase-26 close	68.9%	committed baseline
instr-weighted, Phase-27 close	67.0%	a re-baselining DOWN, not a regression
game-code matches banked this phase	~0	Phase 27 was an INFRASTRUCTURE + FINDINGS phase

The headline dropped because T7's disc-completeness audit added 4 SC07 overlays (~2.45 MB of mostly- unmatched code) to the denominator — the prior 68.9% was measured over an incomplete disc. Raw match velocity this phase was ~0 (no harvest ran), but the phase's product is leverage on FUTURE velocity: the tool fixes (T2/T4/T6) and the pin-crash-wall dissolution (T5) unblock work the prior tooling hid. For the flip decision: do not read Phase-27 as ~0 progress/session — it is a denominator correction plus a set of unblocking findings; the next harvest phase (P29) is where velocity resumes and should be re-measured there.

The templatability swing (the number that decides P28/P29 yield)

⚠️ CORRECTED 2026-07-15 (Phase-28 T1) — the ≈0% row below was measuring a MISSING BUILD STEP.

The Phase-27 row said h_seq family ≈ 0%, on the strength of 0x8017BEBC banking 0 of 8, and that number rewrote the endgame ("P29's arithmetic is (cores cracked) × (reach), NOT (families) × 120", PhaseEnd_Phase27 Roadmap delta). It is refuted. The same family, same era, through the carve path its own exemplar required: 8 of 8 BANKED (4 same-address + 4 cross-address; make clean + extract-all + check-all → 140/140 byte-identical).

Root cause — the probe used a tool with no carve step. 0x8017BEBC is a jr/switch core. §47 banked its exemplar as "lazy isolation → carve (9-piece interleave) → splice → BYTE-IDENTICAL" and stated the fix is "×N template-safe". family_sweep.hseq_sweep stages C and gates — it has no carve step, so gcc's generated jump table is never placed at the sibling's address. The entire residual I byte-verified is two words: lui $at,%hi(jtbl_801EC44C) / lw $v0,%lo(jtbl_801EC44C)($at) (classify_member → PURE, ndiff=2, positions 343/345). config/overlays.mk:112 carves ov_SC01_000_jr_8017BEBC.o for the exemplar; :134 has no such entry for the member. The 0/8 measured the omitted carve, not the family. tools/jtbl_family_bank.py exists to do exactly this per sibling and had never been run on this family.

Compounding: the family is one of only 3 of 163 with has_mid_jr — i.e. the roadmap generalized from n=1, on the least representative family in the population, using the wrong tool for its class. And the three Phase-26 exhaustion probes it corroborated (tiny-IMM 0/241, PURE 0/134, pinned 0/133) all predate _carry_macros (Phase-27 T5, commit:0637) — Phase 27's decision-log itself calls its re-probe "a fourth phantom exhaustion proof" while never re-running the first three. R35: a 0% from a broken tool and a 0% from a working one are the same number and opposite facts.

Propagation regimes, byte-measured (the whole-binary gate is the only entry here — G3/P9):

regime	rate	evidence
h_exact reach-N core (byte-identical across N overlays)	≈ ×N, near-100%	§52 (Phase 26): 5 cracked cores → 670 banked instances = ×134 each, mechanical
h_seq family, jr/switch core, WITH the per-sibling carve	8/8 on a bounded probe (n=1 family)	`0x8017BEBC` via `jtbl_family_bank.py --raw` (P28 T1): 4 same-addr + 4 cross-addr (`to_addr`), 140/140 clean-fleet
h_seq family, jr/switch core, WITHOUT the carve	0/8 — an artifact, not a rate	the P27 T5 probe (`family_sweep`, no carve step). Do not cite this as templatability evidence.
h_seq family, non-jr (PURE / IMM / MIXED)	UNMEASURED	the three Phase-26 probes are pre-`_carry_macros` and were never re-run → P28 T3

The honest state of the swing number. The ≈0% doctrine has no surviving post-fix evidence. What T1 establishes is narrow and real: a jr/switch family templates at 8/8 when the carve its exemplar required is actually performed. What it does not establish is a general rate — n=1, and jr is by construction the rarest class (3/163 families). The general rate is exactly what P28 T3 measures, over the population that actually exists (from the T0-fixed map): 1,418 matched-exemplar families / 21,889 unmatched members — PURE 17,024 (78%) · IMM 4,473 (20%) · STRUCT 392 (1.8%).

Note the roadmap's swing number is aimed at the wrong class. It sizes P28/P29 on the register-drift (STRUCT) close-rate — 1.8% of the input. The mass is PURE+IMM (98%).

The addressable pool (T0, from the fixed map). 937,248 ins = 21.7% of all remaining weight = 7.16pp of fleet instr if it all banked, all behind an already-matched exemplar:

stratum	families	members	ins
SC07-only (unmatched ONLY in the 4 P27 overlays; exemplar already byte-proven)	1,255	6,268	230,612
legacy PURE non-jr	95	7,993	478,379
legacy IMM (incl. `0x8017BEBC`: 115 members × 952 ins ≈ 109,480)	36	6,644	212,707
legacy MIXED	30	968	10,462
legacy PURE w/ jr	2	16	5,088

This is a prediction (h_seq predicts; the gate decides). T3 gates it before P29 scales.

Cost / yield per tier (this session)

tier	cost/fn	direct banks	durable yield
Fable5 (discovery)	~230k tok/fn (238k/257k/270k/199k measured)	0 / 5	3 oracle reclassifications + 2 cracked roots + the pin-crash wall dissolved + 4 new pin-free levers (cookbook §H)
cheap-Opus (apply idioms)	~40–140k tok/fn (Phase-23/26 data)	the §52 wave: 5 cores	applies Fable5's idioms; the productive banking tier
permuter	CPU-only ($0)	regalloc/schedule drift	7 all-time (all Phase-21); tail exhausted
local v3	$0	the ≤15-ins band	~1,300 (Phase-23); off the hard tail

Fable5's ROI is NOT banks — it is idioms + wall-dissolutions (the doctrine held perfectly this phase: 0 banks, but a propagation wall down and the codegen map extended). Budget Fable5 for discovery, then harvest cheap-Opus against the distilled idioms. The perishable Fable5 window (~7/19) is spent on the hard un-drafted cores + wall characterization, never on functions cheap-Opus can apply a known idiom to.

The one number that needs P28 (honest gap)

Member-adapt close-rate on REGISTER-DRIFT members — the roadmap's headline swing — was NOT directly measurable this phase: it needs P28's member_adapt tool (the exemplar→member delta engine) to try each drift member and gate it. The bounding data: the refusal taxonomy's register-drift class is the only adaptable one (§52 levers, ~⅓ pin-free crack rate per walled cluster), collision members filter out, and pin-crash members are now UNBLOCKED (T5) rather than ×1-capped. P28 opens by measuring this on a byte-gated sample before P29 scales — exactly as the roadmap's risk register prescribes.

New lever this phase (not in the roadmap's projections)

The pin-crash wall is dissolved (T5 + .run/giants/pin_crash_sigabrt.md): the ~20 PINS-class stubs in the manifest (and the 4 characterized pin families) were routed to the ×1 backlog as "cc1-crash / intrinsic"; they now stage clean and are mechanically harvestable (byte-identity per sibling is the gate's question, but the crash barrier is gone). This is un-projected P29 fuel — a whole reach-N class the roadmap wrote off, back on the table.

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