Drew T
ce88baf365
docs/calibration.md — the byte-gate-grounded rates that size P28/P29 (roadmap §6 held yield projections until this). - VELOCITY: instr 68.9->67.0% (a T7 denominator re-baselining DOWN, not a regression) + ~0 matches banked (an infrastructure/findings phase). The honest flip-checkpoint read: denominator correction + unblocking findings, NOT 0 progress/session — velocity resumes at P29, re-measure there. - THE TEMPLATABILITY SWING (decisive for P28/P29): h_exact reach-N cores propagate ~xN near-100% (§52: 5 cores -> 670 instances) vs h_seq/h_norm structural families ~0% (0x8017BEBC: 106/112 stage but 0/8 bank, all genuine DIFF). So remaining yield = per-member cracking + mechanical xN for the h_exact cores, NOT "template x120 the 986 families" — B1/B2's cheap-harvest hope is byte-refuted. The 223-stub frontier: 101 reach-134 (xN-able if cracked) + 119 reach-1. - COST/TIER: Fable5 ~230k tok/fn, 0 banks / 5 — ROI is idioms + the pin-crash wall dissolved, not banks (the doctrine held). cheap-Opus is the banking tier; permuter tail exhausted; local-v3 $0/<=15. - HONEST GAP: the headline member-adapt close-rate on register-drift members needs P28's member_adapt tool (chicken-and-egg) -> P28 opens by measuring it on a byte-gated sample, per the risk register. - NEW un-projected fuel: ~20 PINS-class stubs now harvestable (pin-crash dissolved, T5).
4.8 KiB
Endgame calibration — measured rates for P28/P29 sizing (Phase-27 T9)
The roadmap (§6 risk register) makes the member-adapt close-rate THE swing number and holds P28/P29 yield projections until it's measured. This records what Phase-27 could measure directly and names honestly the one number that needs P28's
member_adapttool to pin down. All rates are byte-gate-grounded (G3/P9) — a "match" here means the whole-binary gate accepted it.
Velocity (the flip-timing checkpoint input)
| value | note | |
|---|---|---|
| instr-weighted, Phase-26 close | 68.9% | committed baseline |
| instr-weighted, Phase-27 close | 67.0% | a re-baselining DOWN, not a regression |
| game-code matches banked this phase | ~0 | Phase 27 was an INFRASTRUCTURE + FINDINGS phase |
The headline dropped because T7's disc-completeness audit added 4 SC07 overlays (~2.45 MB of mostly- unmatched code) to the denominator — the prior 68.9% was measured over an incomplete disc. Raw match velocity this phase was ~0 (no harvest ran), but the phase's product is leverage on FUTURE velocity: the tool fixes (T2/T4/T6) and the pin-crash-wall dissolution (T5) unblock work the prior tooling hid. For the flip decision: do not read Phase-27 as ~0 progress/session — it is a denominator correction plus a set of unblocking findings; the next harvest phase (P29) is where velocity resumes and should be re-measured there.
The templatability swing (the number that decides P28/P29 yield)
Two propagation regimes, both byte-measured this phase:
| regime | rate | evidence |
|---|---|---|
| h_exact reach-N core (byte-identical across N overlays) | ≈ ×N, near-100% | §52 (Phase 26): 5 cracked cores → 670 banked instances = ×134 each, mechanical |
| h_seq / h_norm structural family (same skeleton, per-overlay byte-variants) | ≈ 0% | 0x8017BEBC (T5): 106/112 members STAGE cleanly (macro-carry fixed), but 0 of 8 bank — all genuine byte-DIFF |
This is the decisive P28/P29 input. The roadmap's B1/B2 hoped the large h_seq families were a
cheap mechanical harvest; the byte-gate says they are not templatable — the structural (h_seq) match
is necessary, not sufficient. So the remaining yield is NOT "template ×120 the 986 families"; it is
per-member cracking for the structural families and mechanical ×N only for the h_exact reach-N
cores. The current 223-live-stub frontier: 101 reach-134 (h_exact — ×134-able IF the core cracks),
119 reach-1 (×1), 3 mid. So the P29 arithmetic is: (cores cracked) × (their reach), NOT (families) × 120.
Cost / yield per tier (this session)
| tier | cost/fn | direct banks | durable yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fable5 (discovery) | ~230k tok/fn (238k/257k/270k/199k measured) | 0 / 5 | 3 oracle reclassifications + 2 cracked roots + the pin-crash wall dissolved + 4 new pin-free levers (cookbook §H) |
| cheap-Opus (apply idioms) | ~40–140k tok/fn (Phase-23/26 data) | the §52 wave: 5 cores | applies Fable5's idioms; the productive banking tier |
| permuter | CPU-only ($0) | regalloc/schedule drift | 7 all-time (all Phase-21); tail exhausted |
| local v3 | $0 | the ≤15-ins band | ~1,300 (Phase-23); off the hard tail |
Fable5's ROI is NOT banks — it is idioms + wall-dissolutions (the doctrine held perfectly this phase: 0 banks, but a propagation wall down and the codegen map extended). Budget Fable5 for discovery, then harvest cheap-Opus against the distilled idioms. The perishable Fable5 window (~7/19) is spent on the hard un-drafted cores + wall characterization, never on functions cheap-Opus can apply a known idiom to.
The one number that needs P28 (honest gap)
Member-adapt close-rate on REGISTER-DRIFT members — the roadmap's headline swing — was NOT directly
measurable this phase: it needs P28's member_adapt tool (the exemplar→member delta engine) to try each
drift member and gate it. The bounding data: the refusal taxonomy's register-drift class is the only
adaptable one (§52 levers, ~⅓ pin-free crack rate per walled cluster), collision members filter out, and
pin-crash members are now UNBLOCKED (T5) rather than ×1-capped. P28 opens by measuring this on a
byte-gated sample before P29 scales — exactly as the roadmap's risk register prescribes.
New lever this phase (not in the roadmap's projections)
The pin-crash wall is dissolved (T5 + .run/giants/pin_crash_sigabrt.md): the ~20 PINS-class stubs
in the manifest (and the 4 characterized pin families) were routed to the ×1 backlog as "cc1-crash /
intrinsic"; they now stage clean and are mechanically harvestable (byte-identity per sibling is the
gate's question, but the crash barrier is gone). This is un-projected P29 fuel — a whole reach-N class
the roadmap wrote off, back on the table.